The Three Laws of Business

No freebies. No backsies. GTFO.

The Failure Bias

leave a comment »

Those industrious little freetards over at Wikipedia list a whole bunch of flaws in the way that people think, "cognitive biases". Are these useful when attempting to understand how noobs think? Today I review the works of Kahneman, and conclude that he wasted his life.

About To Drop The Bomb

Confirmation Bias is a good starting point to illustrate his categorization – given some incorrect hypothesis (chicks dig iPhones), your average noob will only need a single smile from a fat chick to confirm it. On the other hand, the usual hypothesis I advance to the noobs I work with (“you are doing it wrong”) is constantly confirmed by the chaps in QA. Not just occasionally, but a handful of new critical bugs every damn day confirmation. I would expect this to confirm that they should listen to what I am saying – so much so that there should be a fucking Cult Of My Goddamn Awesomeness by now. Statues, virgins, offerings…

Bow Down

Sadly there doesn’t appear to be a cult developing, and the golden statue of my testicles in the boardroom is not present. So I conclude that it is not useful to identify a whole bunch of cognitive biases; people just do shit wrong. They do it wrong in all sorts of directions. Their failure only needs to be categorized and documented because its usually hilarious. They miss the target every damn time, and this is not due to a Left Bias, Down Bias, or Shot Self In Own Nuts Bias – they are just terrible at what they do.

The only real bias is the Failure Bias, because winning is hard. Leave aiming to the professionals.

Advertisements

Written by 3laws

January 29, 2010 at 2:24 am

Posted in Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: